By Philip LaneDecember 4th, 2013
By Philip LaneDecember 2nd, 2013
AIB and Bank of Ireland have released statements (one somewhat shorter than the other) following the results of the balance sheet assessments carried out by the Central Bank.
UPDATE: The statement released from PTSB at 11am also reflects a paucity of information.
By Philip LaneDecember 2nd, 2013
By Philip LaneNovember 29th, 2013
This open letter has been published in full-page ads in the main international financial newspapers this week.
The latest update of the mortgage arrears statistics has been published by the Central Bank. See here.
For the first time since the series began the total number of PDH accounts in arrears shows a quarterly fall (142,892 to 141,520). This is a result of the slow-down in new arrears cases seen in recent quarters. The situation of those in existing arrears continues to deteriorate with another significant increase in the number now 720 days or more in arrears (28,860 to 31,834).
The outstanding balance on mortgages in arrears is €25.6 billion, of which €18.9 billion are in arrears of 90 days or more. The total amount of arrears rose from €2.02 billion to €2.17 billion.
The total amount of PDH mortgage debt continues to fall and is now at €108.5 billion, compared to €118.6 billion when the series began in September 2009. Capital repayments on existing loans are offset by new lending so the rate of capital repayment over the past four years has been substantial.
Interest-only or other reduced payment options remain the most utilised restructuring options though the number of accounts these were applied to fell from 44,805 to 37,643 over the quarter. In relation to the overall drop in the number of PDH mortgage accounts in arrears it should be noted that restructuring through arrears capitalisation increased from 13,627 to 16,146 accounts.
In the Q2 data it was reported that there was 254 permanent interest rate reductions for PDH accounts. Today’s release says that just 16 accounts now have a permanent interest rate reduction applied to them. The number counted as having a temporary interest rate reduction increased from 870 to 1,426.
The number of split mortgages rose significantly from 306 to 1,154 over the quarter. Term extensions remain the most used permanent restructure increasing from 14,630 to 15,447.
There are now 6,325 in ‘Other’ restructures (up from 2,300 in Q2). This category “mainly comprises accounts that have been offered a long-term solution, pending the completion of six months of successful payments.” Many of these are likely to be split mortgages agreed during the quarter which will move into that category on successful completion of the probation.
At the of September there were 80,555 restructured PDH accounts and 78.9 per cent were deemed to be meeting the conditions of the restructure. There were 76 forced repossession in the quarter and 133 voluntary surrenders.
Data on the Buy-to-Let sector is also included in the release.
By Aedín DorisNovember 27th, 2013
Donal O’Neill, Olive Sweetman and I have been working on the issue of wage flexibility in Ireland, and have put our initial results into a working paper. Here’s the abstract:
There is considerable debate about the role of wage rigidity in explaining unemployment. Despite a large body of empirical work, no consensus has emerged on the extent of wage rigidity. Previous attempts to empirically examine wage rigidity have been hampered by small samples and measurement error. In this paper we examine nominal wage flexibility in Ireland both in the build up to, and during the Great Recession. The Irish case is particularly interesting because it has been one of the countries most affected by the crisis. Our main analysis is based on earnings data for the entire population of workers in Ireland taken from tax returns, which are free of reporting error. We find a substantial degree of downward wage flexibility in the pre-crisis period. We also observe a significant change in wage dynamics since the crisis began; the proportion of workers receiving wage cuts more than doubled and the proportion receiving wage freezes increased substantially. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in wage changes, with a significant proportion of workers continuing to receive pay rises at the same time as other were receiving pay cuts.
The full paper is linked here.
UPDATE. The following is probably also relevant here:
Bond Repayments: Motion [Private Members]
“That Dáil Éireann:
calls on the Government:
— to immediately lobby the European Central Bank for a one-off exemption from the rules of monetary financing, to allow the Central Bank of Ireland to destroy the €25 billion in sovereign bonds issued in February of this year, in lieu of the remaining promissory notes, plus the €3.06 billion bond also being held by the Central Bank of Ireland in payment for the 2012 promissory note; and
— to cease any and all interest payments currently being made on those bonds.”
- The first part of the debate on this motion is available here.
- UPDATE 2: The final part of the debate on the above motion is now available here.
Employment is up 58,000 in the year. Full-time employment accounts 53,500 of that. Concerns about the distribution of the numbers employed into each sector remain (particularly the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector). There was a 30,200 increase in the numbers self-employed and a 27,300 increase in the number of employees.
Unemployment using the QNHS is now at 282,900, a drop of 41,700 over the year. Self-classified unemployment is at 326,700 down 45,000 in the last 12 months.
The unemployment rate was 13.0 percent in Q3 (seasonally adjusted 12.8 percent). Using the Live Register the CSO project that the SA rate in October was 12.6 percent.
The labour force has increased by 16,000 in the same time with a 0.5pp annual increase in the participation rate to 60.7 percent.
The number unemployed for one year or longer fell 27,800 of which 25,800 were males. The long-term unemployment rate is 7.6 percent (8.9 percent a year ago).
Youth unemployment (15-24) has fallen from 74,000 to 60,400 with the youth unemployment rate at 26.5 percent. The youth unemployment ratio is 10.3 percent.
There is lots more detail in the release. The Earnings and Labour Costs Survey for Q3 has also been released.
The latest report from the FAC is available here.
By Alan AhearneNovember 21st, 2013
The Institute of International and European Affairs will host a conference in the Convention Centre Dublin on Monday, 2 December that will feature a series of keynote addresses and panel discussions to consider the rapidly changing banking environment in the context of the proposals for a banking union in Europe. The implications of these developments, including what they mean for the future of the euro, the management of financial crises in the Eurozone and the likely impact on businesses and individual consumers, will also be addressed. Additional details can be found here.
Anyone else noticing how bad news is always flagged up as being “unexpected” these days?
Ashoka Mody has a new Bruegel essay proposing a “Schuman compact” for the Euro area, available here.
The chairman of the US Senate Finance Committee, Max Baucus (D) has published some proposals for reform of international aspects of the US tax code. There is lots to read here.
One could look for possible implications for Ireland through the references to foreign income, Subpart F, “check the box”, the “same country exemption”, the CFC “look-through rule”, inversions or section 482 (transfer pricing) and other provisions in the US tax code that we have heard about but don’t fully understand. However, there are lots of reasons why this set of proposals may not get very far. Trying to find a word of support in the statement from the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Dave Camp (R) is one and the impending retirement of Baucus in 2014 is another. The point is simply that the debate is not standing still even if actual reform still appears to be a way off.
Here is a report from Bloomberg on the proposals.
By Philip LaneNovember 19th, 2013
The FT reports on capital market perspectives in relation to Ireland’s “clean exit” - here.
John Cassidy of The New Yorker pulls together six charts on income inequality and social mobility in the US in this post.
The third chart offers some international comparisons with reference made to Ireland’s high level of market income inequality and the impact the tax and transfer system has on disposable income inequality.
In an interview broadcast today as part of RTE’s This Week show, NTMA chief executive John Corrigan made some comments on the OMT programme.
Colm Ó Mongáin: If we had applied for extra conditionality we would have qualified then for this European Central Bank bond-buying programme so was there any sense that applying for a credit line would offset the risk that were there trouble further down the line and a spike in European bond yields we would be ok because the European Central Bank would be able to buy Irish bonds?
John Corrigan: Well, the take on that is … is unclear in the sense that the OMT, which is the jargon for it, which is the programme operated by the central bank, which hasn’t been triggered yet, the precise terms and conditions for accessing that haven’t been laid down, number one. And number two, that programme is designed to address systemic issues which might arise in the markets. So, if, even still we were caught up in systemic issues as part of a wider problem to the extent that OMT was triggered we would still be in line to benefit from that.
Most of the ‘what if’ scenarios raised this week following the decision not to pursue a precautionary credit line focussed on domestic concerns about the Irish economy rather than systemic ones for the euro area.
The question seemed a perfect opportunity for John Corrigan to say that Ireland is already eligible to be considered for OMT without the necessity for the additional conditionality that a precautionary credit line might bring. He is right that “the precise terms and conditions haven’t been laid down” but we do have this very brief outline of OMT which provides some guidance on which countries are eligible to be considered for OMT.
Outright Monetary Transactions will be considered for future cases of EFSF/ESM macroeconomic adjustment programmes or precautionary programmes as specified above. They may also be considered for Member States currently under a macroeconomic adjustment programme when they will be regaining bond market access.
It is pretty obvious that Ireland is covered by the second sentence. As part of the existent EU/IMF programme there has already been strict conditionality imposed on Irish policy for 2014. If there is an asymmetric shock that hits Ireland which can be alleviated by central bank bond purchases then the ECB’s Governing Council can decide to activate OMT for Ireland. This week’s decision had no impact on that.
As long as Ireland is “regaining bond market access” (which is admittedly subjective) then Ireland is eligible to be considered for OMT and a credit line is not a necessity for it. It is not clear to me why John Corrigan did not say as much today.
Paul Krugman has an interesting and alarming post here, in which a key question that is posed is: “So how can you reconcile repeated bubbles with an economy showing no sign of inflationary pressures?”.
I have often thought that China may provide a partial answer to the question: an elastic supply of Chinese workers meant an elastic supply of Chinese goods, that were vented onto Western markets at a fixed exchange rate and financed by internationally mobile capital. Presumably many others have said something similar in the past, since it seems like an obvious point to make. I wonder if you could make the case that similar forces were — at least at part — at work in the 1920s, with an overhang of primary products on international markets following the disruptions of World War 1 helping to keep a lid on commodity price inflation. (The international monetary context was obviously very different.)
And, while I’m not a theorist, it has often struck me that it wouldn’t be so surprising if inflationary pressures that don’t show up in commodity prices showed up in asset prices instead.
I was once at an after-dinner talk by Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa in which he said something similar, and then went on to make the point that whereas commodity price inflation is self-limiting — it makes us unhappy, and tends to lead to retrenchment by private agents and/or central banks — asset price inflation makes us happy and encourages expenditure, and is thus a process that feeds on itself (until it goes into reverse).
If there is anything to this, then when China and the rest of Factory Asia eventually hits its “Lewis point“, Western inflationary pressures may once again begin to show up in commodity price inflation. If Western economies were less able to finance imports from Asia, or if their currencies started weakening, then something similar might happen. Perhaps that wouldn’t be such a bad thing.
By Philip LaneNovember 15th, 2013
Transcript and video link at Broadsheet - here.
By Philip LaneNovember 14th, 2013
This FT article covers a lot of ground - here.
A lot of material was published today by the DG FIN in the European Commission including the 2014 Annual Growth Survey and the 2014 Alert Mechanism Report. These and other documents can be accessed here.
By Philip LaneNovember 7th, 2013
By Aidan KaneNovember 6th, 2013
via Gavin Kostick in comments, earlier
Fishamble’s production of ‘Guaranteed!’ by Colin Murphy is back on national tour, starting at Kilkenomics this Friday. First panel discussion includes Bill Black and Dan Ariely.
By Aidan KaneNovember 6th, 2013
The Annual Conference of the Economic and Social History Society of Ireland is being held in NUI Galway on Friday 22nd and Saturday 23rd of November, convened by Niall Ó Ciosáin and Caitríona Clear.
Registration/booking information and the conference programe are available at:
The Society’s main web page is here.